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Are we still operating in the TMS?

Posted by bernell on December 3, 2014

I have been super busy of late in my day job and will likely continue to be so for awhile.

Further, there isn't a lot of popping news to report right now nor is there a seeming thirst for me to run down a lot of news.

So, for these reasons I haven't posted a lot of late.

And, some are wondering what's going on here?

Well, there are activities occurring and rumors of more activities occurring.

First, there are at least three wells that have finished drilling in the last few days and a couple of more likely finished or finishing soon.

Finished:  ...Sanchez Morris #1H...I'm thinking it's moving to the Macedonia site to drill 2 wells, but no confirmation, as yet.

..................EnCana Mathis 29-17H-1 is moving to the Lawson 25-13H-1.  I'm not sure if it will be put up immediately to be drilled or if some rig maintenance will take place on the Lawson site, but the move to this site will occur soon either way.

....................Comstock CMR Foster Creek 28-40 #1H is moving to the Comstock CMR Foster Creek 30-31 site.

Likely finished/finishing soon:

....................EnCana Longleaf 29H-1.  I am guessing the rig from here will be moving to the McIntosh 15H/Reese 16H site, but the Stewart/Bergold is another possibility.

....................Goodrich CMR 8H -1 and -2.  I am guessing this move will be to the Jackson 11-2H site...possibly to drill also the a well into the HC Leak unit.

My guess is the Halcon Franklin Post Prop will finish out Halcon's planned drilling in the TMS within the next couple of weeks.

The Goodrich T. Lewis 7-38H-1 and the Goodrich Kent 41H-1 both are likely a couple of weeks away from finishing and moving.  I believed these two rigs would move/remain in Tangipahoa and/or Washington Parish, but the only completed pad and permitted unit is the Kinchen 58H-1.

I don't know if Goodrich plans to drop a rig or whether it will have a unit permitted shortly or if a rig will be moved to a site in Wilkinson County.  There are pads that appear to be about ready to go for Goodrich in Tangipahoa/Washington parishes, so a permit could be imminent. 

We shall see.

Fracking should be finishing shortly on the EnCana Ash 13 H-1 and -2 sites.  It is finished on the Goodrich Williams 46H-1. Comstock is set to start on the CMR Foster Creek 28-40 very soon. Rumors are the Halcon Creek Cottage is getting ready, also.

So, while I'm giving this update, let me assure everyone that the TMS is NOT dead by any stretch. 

Pads are continuing to be built.  Offices are being renovated for legal work for the play. Long-term rental agreements are being made AND paid for years in advance. Support businesses are being set up for the TMS.  Cost savings ideas are being offered by service companies.  And, more...

I realize $70 oil prices are too low (LLS pricing has yet to fall below $70), but no one believes the prices will stay here long.  On the bright side, with the price of diesel being so low, pad building costs are actually lower.  Even rig drilling costs will be cheaper with lower prices.  So, there IS at least some offset to the lower oil prices. (Ideally you would want to drill and complete a well with prices at $70 and, then, begin flow back and start selling with prices at $100...right?  Right!)

It is exciting also to note that rumors are new wells are coming in very well. 

Fewer drilling issues are occurring with each drill. 

With the success the recent wells have found, I can assure you if the price of oil were at $100, I have no doubt that we would be seeing a preboom frenzy here in the TMS right now. A LOT of rigs would be making plans for being here in early 2015...

...As things stand, the TMS remains as a very promising play, even as prices dampen the spirits a bit.

So, take it for what it is worth, folks.  The reality of what I'm seeing and hearing in the TMS is that it is still very much alive...for now.

What do you think about it?